During WW1 the British Royal Navy blockaded Germany. It has been estimated that over 600,000 Germans died as a result. The most effective part of the blockade was that it stopped Germany obtaining supplies of fertiliser. Food production fell and people starved.
A recent BBC article about the Norwegian company Yara suggests we are likely to see serious fertiliser shortages as a result of the Ukrainian conflict. Both nutrients and nitrogen fertiliser are at risk. Read the article https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60623941
Russia and Ukraine are some of the biggest producers of food globally. Russia also produces enormous amounts of nutrients, like potash and phosphate - key ingredients in fertilisers, which enable plants and crops to grow
Half the world's population gets food as a result of fertilisers... and if that's removed from the field for some crops, [the yield] will drop by 50%.
[Note - without artificial fertilisers the world could only support a population of about 3 billion. It now has almost 8 billion]
For me, it's not whether we are moving into a global food crisis - it's how large the crisis will be.
Huge amounts of natural gas are needed to produce ammonia, the key ingredient in nitrogen fertiliser. Yara International relies on vast quantities of Russian gas for its European plants.
[Note - the article is referring to the Haber-Bosch process which requires huge amounts of energy to produce nitrogen fertiliser]
Last year, Yara was forced to temporarily suspend production of about 40% of its capacity in Europe because of the spike in the price of wholesale gas. Other producers also cut supplies.
Combined with higher shipping rates, sanctions on Belarus (another major potash supplier) and extreme weather - this prompted a big jump in fertiliser prices last year, adding to a surge in food prices.
At the moment NATO and the US armament companies are able to control the narrative. That will change when consumers find themselves paying much more for food and energy. Also, US and European farmers will have to pay much higher prices for whatever fertiliser they can buy. That will cut their profits and output.
The farming lobby is very powerful. It will be interesting to see what happens when they start complaining.
The NATO countries currently believe that they can sanction Russia with impunity. If Russia responds with gas and fertiliser sanctions they can make make a lot of people cold and hungry.
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