Pages

Mrs May's Kutuzov Strategy over Brexit

Many commentators have accused Prime Minister May of being weak and indecisive over Brexit [Britain's withdrawal from the European Union].

Perhaps they are right, but it could also be that she is following a Kutusov strategy. I think she is a remainer, but knows that she is not strong enough in Parliament or the Conservative Party to win a confrontation.

Field Marshall Mikhail Kutuzov was the commander of the Russian Empire's forces during the later part of Napoleon's invasion of Russia. His strategy was to avoid as far as possible a confrontation with Napoleon's army. He fought at Borodino in 1812 but the battle was inconclusive. After that Kutuzov's strategy was to draw Napoleon deeper into Russia in the belief that his enemy's situation would worsen with time. Kutuzov had replaced Barclay de Tolly who had been following the same strategy during the earlier part of Napoleon's invasion but was forced out by hotheads who wanted a battle.

Both the Russians may have been inspired by Quintus Fabius Maximus
Verrucosus who used the same strategy against Hannibal.

For the following reasons Mrs May has good cause to think that the Brexiteer's situation will weaken as time passes.

1.  The old favoured Brexit and the young favoured EU membership. The old are dying off and more young people are becoming eligible to vote.

2.  The difficulties and disadvantages of Brexit are becoming more apparent over time.

3.  More attention is being paid to some of the people who funded the Brexit campaign and acted behind the scenes. Was Brexit a Russian plot? I do not know but there are obviously questions to be answered about dark money.  As more dirt emerges some of the less rabid Brexiteers may begin to quietly slip away into the night and fog.

4.  The Labour Party's Brexit policy has completely changed over time.  If she has their support she can easily afford to directly confront the Brexiteers.

No comments:

Post a Comment