Assad's trump card

We are told that the people who attacked the gas installation in Algeria and the rebels in Mali used weapons looted from weapons depots in Libya when the Gaddafi regime was overthrown. I suspect there might be similar attacks in the future.

When I read about this unanticipated consequence it occurred to me that Assad's regime might hold a powerful trump card in the form of its own weapons stores.

America's proxies in the Middle East are funding and arming the people who are trying to overthrow the Assad's government. America in turn is acting at the instigation of the Israeli government. Why is it Israel who is behind all this? Well, apply the lawyers test of  Cui Bono [To whose benefit]. If you want to know who is really behind some event look at who stands to benefit the most from the event. If Assad is deposed Iran loses its key ally and  is also prevented from shipping arms through Iraq and Syria to Hamas. That's a big win for Israel but I cannot see who else gains. The West stands to gain nothing but lose a lot.


During the US election campaign Obama kept the Jewish lobby groups on his side by splashing a little petrol on the Syrian flames but now he is elected that motive has gone and he might be inclined to pull the plug on the Syrian insurgent groups. Especially if Assad plays his trump card. 

That card is the regimes stock of chemical weapons and ground to air missiles. What would happen if Syria told the US that unless they helped end the insurgency some of the more extreme  groups who are involved in the fighting might just capture a store containing weapons the West is desperate to keep out of the hands of terrorists?  What if the unanticipated consequence of removing Assad's regime might be a chemical weapon turning up in an American city or a ground to air missile bringing down an airliner?

Even if the Syrian government does not actually play that card it seems very likely that, in the chaos following a insurgent victory, some weapons of mass destruction will get into dangerous hands.

I would have thought the events in Iraq and Libya might have been enough warning enough of the dangers of regime change. Lets hope that America does not need another lesson.




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